Methodology & Data

Data sources

All market data originates from Polymarket's public APIs — the Gamma API (markets, metadata), the CLOB API (order books, price history) and the Data API (trades, wallets). News context is matched from public RSS feeds. Polyrum does not generate prices; it aggregates and presents what these sources report.

Update cadence

The market snapshot is refreshed roughly every two hours and cached; aggregate KPIs recompute every few minutes. Individual market pages and live components (order book, recent trades, price history) fetch directly from Polymarket and update more frequently. Each market page shows when its data was last refreshed. Because of caching and upstream delays, figures can lag the live market by minutes.

How to read a probability

A market trading at 30% means traders collectively price a 30% chance of the “Yes” outcome. The price is the implied probability — it moves continuously as new orders arrive and new information emerges. A market price is an estimate, not a guarantee, and it can be wrong.

Categories & signals

Markets are classified into categories using their Polymarket tags and a keyword model over the question text. “Smart-money” flow is derived from larger trades reported by the Data API and is a heuristic, not a recommendation. Backtests are computed over resolved markets to gauge calibration and may change as new markets resolve.

Known limitations

• Cached data can be delayed relative to the live market.
• Upstream APIs occasionally return incomplete or unavailable data; affected sections show a notice.
• Category inference is heuristic and may occasionally misclassify a market.
• Resolved or settled markets may briefly appear before the snapshot updates.

Disclaimer

Polyrum is provided for informational and research purposes only. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, legal or tax advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. Prediction markets are speculative and may be restricted in your jurisdiction. Always do your own research. Polyrum is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket.